Climate, Politics/Capitol Light©, is a service of The JBS Group and Civil Notion
                                                                              January 8, 2020        
                                                                    
Feeding off of a failed UN Summit late in 2019, the almost daily release of reports updating and confirming climate science studies, student strikes, a continent on fire, and the already prominent place of climate in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination, 2020 looms as a watershed political year for national climate policy.

To state the obvious, the re-election of Trump would be a devastating setback for the environ-mental well-being of the nation and the world. Almost as costly in terms of climate defense would be a divided Congress. Notwithstanding the rising number of Republicans in both the House and Senate who are now at least willing to admit there is a problem, Republicans and Democrats remain very far apart in terms of a willingness to do anything even close to what the scientists say is needed within the time they say it needs to be done.

Below is a thumbnail about the new million dollar ad campaign the American Petroleum Institute (API) is launching this year on behalf of oil and gas companies. The tack the Institute is taking is to pitch themselves as part of the solution, without altering their position on most policy matters. API, for example, remains opposed to a carbon tax, the regulation of methane and other greenhouse gases. The campaign is intended to support a heavy lobbying effort by the companies to keep fracking alive.

                       Climate, Politics/Capitol Light©, is a service of The JBS Group and Civil Notion
                                                                      November 6, 2019                         

The big news of the week—kind of—was Trump’s starting the paperwork for getting the US out of the Paris Climate Accord (Accord). Although Trump announced his intentions in June 2017, the rules of the Accord prohibited any formal action before a few days ago. The US won’t actu-ally be off the Accord until November 4, 2020—a day after the next presidential election.

At one level, the Accord with or without the US has not achieved what had been hoped. Only a few nation-states have upped their voluntary greenhouse gas reduction pledges to the point needed to keep global temperatures from crossing the temperature threshold the science community warns of as being points of no return.

Trump’s withdrawal, however, sends the wrong message. It will be used by populist leaders in Brazil, central and eastern European nations, and elsewhere as an excuse for them to retract their country's support for the Accord.

The withdrawal diminishes US standing in climate negotiations, as well as its moral leadership position—not just now but into the future. As in so many other areas, Trump’s willingness just to walk away—with no regard for what’s left in his wake—is making the US an unreliable partner.

                   Climate, Politics/Capitol Light©, is a service of The JBS Group and Civil Notion

                                                                      October 23, 2019                            

Land, lots of land, and water too. Democratic Sens. Tom Udall of New Mexico and Michael Bennet of Colorado have introduced a resolution calling for a national conservation goal of protecting at least 30% of the country's lands and waters by 2030.

The "Thirty by Thirty Resolution to Save Nature" urges the federal government to set the conservation target to help fight climate change as well as improve access to nature for communities of color.

The measure "recognizes that nature — like climate change — is reaching a tipping point," said Udall in prepared remarks for an event later this morning at the Center for American Progress that will also feature Rep. Deb Haaland (D-N.M.). "Many ecosystems and wildlife species are nearing the point of no return."

The resolution recommends that the government work with local communities, states, tribes, and private landowners to increase conservation efforts to sequester carbon and greenhouse gas emissions in land and water.

Democratic Sens. Dick Durbin of Illinois, Cory Booker of New Jersey, and Kamala Harris of California are co-sponsors. (E&E News)

• The Trump administration has leased around 19 million acres of public lands to oil and gas drillers.
• The Wilderness Society estimates that the emissions from extracting and burning fossil fuels from the leased lands could equal the emissions of all the EU nations combined.
  

                   Climate, Politics/Capitol Light©, is a service of The JBS Group and Civil Notion
                                                                      October 18, 2019                                                           
 
In the midst of it all, Senate Democrats forced a vote on their resolution to deny the administration its Affordable Clean Energy rule (ACE). The resolution called for striking down ACE and reinstating Obama’s Clean Power Plan (CPP).

The resolution was brought to the floor using the rarely used and even more rarely successful Congressional Review Act (CRA). The CRA allows Congress to strike down a regulation within 60 legislative days of its being posted as final in the Federal Register. Ordinarily, Senate Majority Leader McConnell (R-KY) would have buried the resolution. The CRA, however, allows a resolution to come to the floor directly with the signatures of 30 senators.

The Democrats had no illusion about the resolution’s passage. It was put forward purely as a means of getting Republicans on record against doing anything very strident about Earth’s warming. The Senate Democrats succeeded mostly in proving what everyone already knew.

                   Climate, Politics/Capitol Light©, is a service of The JBS Group and Civil Notion
                                                                      October 10, 2019                                                           
 
Trump’s Ego Is Getting in the Way of America’s Environmental Progress

Impeachment has been the big dog on the political porch this week. It promises to be there for quite some time--possibly through the end of the year. Stonewalling by the White House and the arrest of two colleagues of the president’s lawyer, Rudi Giuliani, suggests there’s a lot of information around that needs to be gathered and gone through.

Despite all the attention on the impeachment inquiry and Congress being in recess, energy and environment issues still managed to make headlines.

Trump issued two executive orders during the week that will make it easier for the administration to deregulate the environment.

The White House also came out with a plan raising the minimum amount of ethanol blended into fuel to 15 billion gallons. The proposal was hailed by corn farmers and condemned by the oil industry. Prior to the announcement, Trump had promised both groups they would come out winners in the deal.

Trump chose to side with the farmers. I believe the choice was well calculated in that the oil industry is unlikely to abandon Trump come November 2020—at least not solely for this decision. Oil interests can’t afford to have their loyalty questioned especially given that the administration has served them well by promising to freeze auto and light truck fuel efficiency standards at the 2020 level. Moreover, it is in the industry’s interest to keep the administration from supporting any extension of the electric vehicle tax credit.

                    Climate, Politics/Capitol Light©, is a service of The JBS Group and Civil Notion
 
Volume 1                                                     October 4, 2019                                                                           Issue 31
 
The impeachment inquiry is doing a great job of sucking up all the available oxygen on Capitol Hill. Although Speaker Pelosi wants the investigation to move expeditiously through the House, these things generally take on a life of their own. As exciting as this latest Trumpian drama, maybe Congress does have other work to do--not the least of the tasks in need of tending is funding the federal government after November 21, 2019 when the current continuing resolution (CR) lapses.

As I'd written previously, Trump is so tightly wound over the prospect of impeachment that anything is possible at this point--including closing down the government. Diversion is a tried and true Trump maneuver, and I would imagine he's not feeling warm and fuzzy when it comes to the Washington bureaucracy. Congressional Republicans, however, will put a lot of pressure on him not to go nuclear on the budget so close to the holidays and the 2020 elections. A shutdown now could last a long time.

The cast of characters in the impeachment drama seems to keep growing. Although it seems a stretch, Secretary of Energy Perry is being dragged into the impeachment investigations because of his having spent considerable time in discussions with Ukraine and other Eastern European countries peddling US coal and natural gas. The Trump administration has made breaking the energy hold that Russia and the Middle East have on these countries, as well as Germany and other EU nations.

Ordinarily, these types of diplomatic overtures would bear little suspicion of their having dark undercurrents; these are not ordinary times, however. The possibility that Vice President Pence was used by Trump in ways that the Pence didn’t understand certainly contributes to the suspicions over Perry’s activities.

                      Climate, Politics/Capitol Light©, is a service of The JBS Group and Civil Notion
 
Volume 1                                                   September 27, 2019                                                                    Issue 30
 
It’s been an exciting week—starting with the UN’s climate summit and ending more or less with the both the House and Senate passing a continuing resolution to keep the doors of government open—at least until midnight on November 21st.

The big political news of the week, of course, was the House taking the first step in the impeachment process. The impeachment investigation will have an impact on energy and environmental legislation, as it will in other areas.

The otherwise caustic relations between Democrats and Republicans and Democrats and Trump have just been made even more so—meaning any initiative requiring the legislative and executive branches to cooperate is at risk—including the 2020 federal budget.

Notwithstanding the Continuing Resolution, I see trouble ahead. Trump is not a happy man. I believe he will at least consider diverting attention from the impeachment investigation by again forcing a shutdown of the federal government.

I would imagine that Trump hates the government he rules over and is likely feeling paranoid. I’ve served as a special counsel to several high-level political appointees and seen how confidence in one’s ability to boss the system can turn to fear and loathing. Those I served started with a better sense of political reality than Donald Trump.

Trump appears to be wound so tight that should he begin to unwind, he’ll take no prisoners.

If I were Rudy Giuliani, I would stay off the streets. I imagine he’ll be the first one thrown under a bus by the president. It’s hard to conceive of anyone on the Trump team better suited to be made into a speed bump than Hiz Hona’ the former mayor of New York. It’s always someone else’s fault in Trumpville.

                       Climate, Politics/Capitol Light©, is a service of The JBS Group and Civil Notion
 
Volume 1                                                          September 23, 2019                                                             Issue 29

The new federal fiscal year is a week away. It appears that a continuing resolution (CR) will once again be the answer to Congress’ continued inability to pass spending bills. The CR already passed by the House and now being considered by the Senate will extend government funding through November 21st. Whether Congress giving itself more time will actually result in the passage of the 12 spending bills that makes up the annual appropriation’s package is questionable.

Each day that passes seems to bring up new partisan conflicts that make doing the business of government a near impossibility. The border wall and Trump’s having gone around Congress by issuing a national emergency at the Southern Border and moving $3.6 billion out of the Defense Department’s budget is still sticking in the craw of Democrats and many Republicans—at least those who recognize Trump’s actions trash the constitutional separation of powers.

Other climate-related issues contributing to the partisan divide include drilling off the shores of the lower continental US and in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR). Contrary to the budget agreement made by the White House and Congress to raise federal spending and the debt ceiling that was made before the August recess, Democrats are still looking to add policy riders to appropriations legislation. The Democrats look to the appropriations bills as their only real chance to push back against the actions of the administration that they otherwise have a problem influencing, e.g., opening the Arctic to oil and gas drilling.

CRs keep the government open, but they basically limit agencies to do only what they’ve done the fiscal year before. These days the that can mean only what an agency did five or ten years ago since Congressional gridlock has ruled Capitol Hill for most of the century.

Climate, Politics/Capitol Light©, is a service of The JBS Group and Civil Notion
 
Volume 1                                                     September 16, 2019                                                                    Issue 27

Show us the money. Congress will move spending legislation on multiple fronts this week, possibly including the Energy and Water Development bill in the Senate and a stopgap measure in the House.

Lawmakers are pressing to pass fiscal 2020 spending bills before the new fiscal year begins Oct. 1 amid partisan splits over funding levels and policy riders.

Leaders in both chambers say they want to avert a shutdown in the fiscal new year by moving a temporary funding measure. The House is set to act on one this week.

The Senate is tentatively set for a procedural vote that would allow it to consider its first fiscal 2020 bills — the Energy-Water and Defense measures — in one package. Sixty votes would be needed to advance the bill, meaning Democrats could filibuster it.

Senate appropriators approved both measures last week, but only the Energy-Water bill had bipartisan support. Democrats opposed the Defense measure because it would help fund President Trump's $5 billion border wall.

If the Senate passes Energy-Water, it would be one of the most significant measures related to climate change to pass the chamber this Congress. The bill includes substantial increases in the budgets of DOE’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy and ARPA-E. The Senate version includes more funds than the House version. (E&E News)

• It’s likely at this point that the Democrats will try to add riders to the appropriations bills in violation of the non-binding agreement made as a part of the budget deal Congressional leaders made with the White House before the August recess.
• It’s agreed that a continuing resolution will be needed as there are only two weeks left before the end of the current fiscal year. The agreement is likely to extend the deadline for a deal to around Thanksgiving.
• Although there’s no appetite for a government shutdown, there is growing enmity between the Democrats, Senate Republicans, and the White House so another game of “chicken” may yet be played.
  

                      Climate, Politics/Capitol Light©, is a service of The JBS Group and Civil Notion
 
 
Volume 1                                                    September 9, 2019                                                                     Issue 26
 
The month ahead:

Congress is back from its August recess. It appears the break did nothing to cool tensions—either between Congressional Republicans and Democrats or between Hill Democrats and Trump. If anything, inter-party relations are more acrimonious than before. It doesn’t bode well for the rest of the legislative year.

Hanging fire on the Senate’s September agenda are appropriations bills. The House has already passed ten of 12 spending bills, while the Senate has yet to introduce even one. The Senate chose to wait until after Trump and Congressional leaders settled on a budget number and agreed to raising the nation’s debt ceiling. Agreements were reached just before the summer’s recess.

Senate appropriators, however, are expecting to pick up the pace release three spending bills in the next few days—Energy-Water, Labor-Health-Human Services, and Defense.

The appetite for a government shutdown is small. A failure to make the September 30th deadline will likely result in a continuing resolution (CR). House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD) has already written the Democratic caucus telling members to expect a CR through November 22nd. There’s been no sign-off by Senate Republicans on a Plan “B” CR, however, so a shutdown is not yet off the table.

Several extensions of expiring programs could become part of a CR, including a short-term reauthorization for the National Flood Insurance Program. The program is set to expire at the end of the month. It’s hard to imagine that either Trump or Congress would dare cut the program during hurricane season—especially in what is already a record year of flooding.

The House will be directing the bulk of its September attentions to conducting committee hearings on issues Trump and company would like to ignore, e.g., gun control, immigration, and climate. Mass shootings, an extraordinary emergency declaration by Trump, and CNN’s seven hours of climate-related townhall meetings have kept these issues in the spotlight.

House Democrats are keen to continue their oversight investigations of Trump and his administration. The list of investigations is likely to grow given events like #Sharpiegate, in which Trump refused to admit he made a mistake about the path of Hurricane Dorian. Vice President Pence’s stay at Trump’s Irish golf resort requiring him to commute the 180 miles by car and his Air Force 2 jetliner to his two days of meetings with Irish leaders in Dublin served-up another opportunity for the Democrats to cry “emoluments.”