Climate, Politics/Capitol Light©, is a service of The JBS Group and Civil Notion

                                                                        January 25, 2020

The Trump administration has gone to great pains to purge Obama-era science advisers from federal advisory boards and replace them with their own. Trump’s scientists seem to have the integrity many of his administrative appointees, e.g., EPA Administrator Wheeler lack.

The administration is going to have a tough time defending its actions in court. It’s possible that administration lawyers are counting on courts deferring to agency expertise in these matters. It is equally possible that they don’t care.

The hole in this strategy is that the administration’s own scientists are unwilling to validate wishful facts. In the clips below, Wheeler and Trump are both called out on their statements about what a proposed rule will and won’t do, as well when the world can expect to begin feeling the impacts of global climate change.

Is it any wonder that 1,600 scientists have left government since Trump took office? Although rarely spoken of, part of Trump’s legacy will be the shambles the executive branch will be upon his departure.

             Climate, Politics/Capitol Light©, is a service of The JBS Group and Civil Notion
                                                                      January 11, 2020
                                                             
Talk about cooking the book(s)

As anticipated, Trump announced his administration’s proposed changes to the National Envi-ronmental Policy Act (NEPA). The proposed changes would reduce the number of infra-structure projects requiring an environmental review and releasing agencies from having to account for cumulative environmental impacts. Under the proposed rules, projects paid for with private investment funds, e.g., the Keystone XL pipeline, would not require an environ-mental impact statement. Absent the NEPA requirement privately funded projects would not be required to disclose plans to discharge waste into nearby rivers, clear cut forests or otherwise increase greenhouse gas emissions.

 The administration has virtually eliminated federal consideration of climate change by freeing agencies from having to account for cumulative environmental impacts. The courts have generally required agencies to account for cumulative climate impact of projects like the federal government's leasing public lands for oil and gas exploration and extraction.

The proposed changes are here. The changes won’t become permanent before the conclusion of a 60-day comment period and conduct of two public hearings.

                   Climate, Politics/Capitol Light©, is a service of The JBS Group and Civil Notion
                                                                      October 18, 2019                                                           
 
In the midst of it all, Senate Democrats forced a vote on their resolution to deny the administration its Affordable Clean Energy rule (ACE). The resolution called for striking down ACE and reinstating Obama’s Clean Power Plan (CPP).

The resolution was brought to the floor using the rarely used and even more rarely successful Congressional Review Act (CRA). The CRA allows Congress to strike down a regulation within 60 legislative days of its being posted as final in the Federal Register. Ordinarily, Senate Majority Leader McConnell (R-KY) would have buried the resolution. The CRA, however, allows a resolution to come to the floor directly with the signatures of 30 senators.

The Democrats had no illusion about the resolution’s passage. It was put forward purely as a means of getting Republicans on record against doing anything very strident about Earth’s warming. The Senate Democrats succeeded mostly in proving what everyone already knew.

                      Climate, Politics/Capitol Light©, is a service of The JBS Group and Civil Notion
 
Volume 1                                                          September 4, 2019                                                                Issue 25

Get a move on. Government lawyers today urged the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit to expedite consideration of legal challenges to the EPA regulation, which replaces the Obama-era Clean Power Plan.

The move could mean the Trump administration defends the ACE rule in the Supreme Court before the end of the president's term.

• How long it takes for ACE cases to be finally resolved by the High Court is a critical part of what the future will hold, should the Democrats retake the White House.
• Trump came into office before the CPP could be decided by the Supreme Court, allowing him to rescind and replace Obama’s plan, and to ask for dismissal of West Virginia v. EPA—the name under which most of the cases were consolidated.
• Had the case been decided in favor of the CPP—by a court without Justices Gorsuch and Kennedy—it would have been much harder for Trump and company to attack because it would have been an in force regulation.
• Beyond the CPP, a positive outcome in the case would have created a strong and on-point precedent that would make it harder for a conservative judiciary to ignore.

For an additional discussion of what a Democratic administration will be facing after four years of Trump check here for my series on Erasing Trump’s Climate Legacy.

                   Climate, Politics/Capitol Light©, is a service of The JBS Group and Civil Notion
 
 
Volume 1                                                                   July 29, 2019                                                                 Issue 20

Note to Readers. The Senate will soon be following the House out of Capital City for their August recess. Climate Politics will drop down to one report a week during the recess.

A brew of a different sort.  Murray Energy Corp. founder Bob Murray said he had provided President Donald Trump another memo containing policy recommendations, which include pressing the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to elevate coal power sales among state public utility commissions.

The coal executive hosted a fundraiser for Trump's 2020 campaign at an arena along the Ohio River. According to reports, the event drew a crowd of several hundred spruced-up donors, many associated with the energy industry. (E&E News)

• Murray was behind Secretary of Energy Perry’s proposing to FERC that coal plants should be kept operating for national security reasons—notwithstanding their contributions to global warming and being uneconomic.
• He continues to push for a reversal of the endangerment finding.
• I would imagine that the Trump will continue to express sympathy for the coal guy’s to-do list at least as long as the money holds out—just a guess.
  

On the count of 3. More than 60 media outlets have committed to a week of focused climate change coverage in September.

The effort was coordinated by the Covering Climate Now project, which was co-founded by the progressive magazine The Nation and the Columbia Journalism Review, in partnership with The Guardian.

                     Climate, Politics/Capitol Light©, is a service of The JBS Group and Civil Notion
 
 
Volume 1                                                                    July 25, 2019                                                                 Issue 19

This Week’s Notion: There auto be a law.

From the Washington Post:

Four automakers from three continents have struck a deal with California to produce more fuel-efficient cars for their U.S. fleets in coming years, undercutting one of the Trump administration’s most aggressive climate policy rollbacks.
The compromise between the California Air Resources Board and Ford, Honda, Volkswagen and BMW of North America came after weeks of secret negotiations and could shape future U.S. vehicle production, even as White House officials aim to relax gas mileage standards for the nation’s cars, pickup trucks, and SUVs.

The deal reached between California and the four auto companies is truly extraordinary both in terms of why the deal came about and the position in which it puts the Trump administration. Since Day 1 of the Trump presidency, the auto industry had been hoping to re-negotiate the deal it struck with the Obama administration on auto and light truck fuel efficiency standards (CAFE) for the period 2021 through 2026.

Over the past two and a half years of the Trump administration, the auto industry has learned the meaning of the phrase be careful what you wish for; as it just might come true. The bad news came to industry representatives in late February on a conference call with the White House. They were told that the administration had cut-off any further conversations with California officials and was going ahead with its proposed Safer Affordable Fuel-Efficient (SAFE) Vehicles Rule freezing the standards at 2020 levels.

The freeze has been called the Trump administration’s most environmentally significant regulatory rollback yet" by the Rhodium Group following its penetrating analysis of the rule’s impact on the environment. The call is not surprising. The transportation sector has surpassed electricity as the major contributor of greenhouse gases (GHGs) to the atmosphere; and, Trump’s efficiency 36.9 mpg is standard is 14.5 mpg more lenient than Obama’s 51.4 mpg.

                     Climate, Politics/Capitol Light©, is a service of The JBS Group and Civil Notion
 
 
Volume 1                                                                    July 22, 2019                                                                 Issue 18
 
Still negotiating. Congressional negotiators and the White House are hoping to reach an accord, before the House leaves for summer recess at the end of this week, that would raise both discretionary spending and the nation's debt ceiling.

The lead negotiators, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), both said late last week they were close to an accord that would lift automatic budget cuts, known as sequestration, due to hit in 2020 and 2021.

They are also in agreement about raising the nation's debt ceiling, which is due to be hit in September.
Discussions were focused on finding ways to offset the costs of spending increases over the next two years that could reach $150 billion. (E&E News)

• There are several alternative approaches to the $150 billion in offsets—some more appearance than reality. One of the options is to tap the nation’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve for a portion of the offsets.
• White House negotiators appear to be losing ground to Speaker Pelosi, which may raise the odds that Trump won’t initially agree with the final proposed arrangement. However, no side seems to want another government shutdown.

                       Climate, Politics/Capitol Light©, is a service of The JBS Group and Civil Notion
 
 
Volume 1                                                                   July 18, 2019                                                                 Issue 17

This Week’s Notion:

Presidential candidate and former Vice President Joe Biden released his “Plan for rural America.” He joins other Democratic candidates, e.g., Warren, Klobuchar, and Sanders in reaching out to a constituency that voted overwhelmingly for Trump in 2016.

Whatever else one might think the meaning of the 2020 national election to be, it represents a line in the sand for the fight against rising global temperatures. While the nation’s politicians fiddle, Earth continues to burn, and the rate of species extinction accelerates, with grave impacts on people around the world.

According to the Pew Research Center Trump won comfortable majorities of both rural white men and women, according to the exit poll. While Trump held a 10-percentage-point advantage over Clinton among white women nationally (53% to 43%), his victory margin nearly triples to 28 points among rural white women (62% to 34%). Trump led Clinton by 32 points among all white men nationally (63% to 31%), but he beat the Democrat by 48 points among white men living in rural areas (72% to 24%).

Although rural America is only 20 percent of the nation’s population, it presents an outsized opportunity for the 2020 Democratic contender for the presidency in terms of the Senate and the electoral college. Big or small, every state has the same number of Senators.

In terms of electoral votes, rural voters have proportionally more weight than large urban population centers. It’s the way the founders designed the system—until its changed presidential candidates can lose the election while garnering millions of votes more than their competition.

              Climate, Politics/Capitol Light©, is a service of The JBS Group and Civil Notion
 
 
Volume 1                                                                     July 11, 2019                                                                 Issue 15
 
Nothing like a good slime. It seems algal slime has turned Florida’s governor Ron DeSantis into an environmentalist. After toxins in Florida’s waters killed animals and left humans scared to swim, the state’s future governor made cleanup a campaign issue. Florida’s severe green and red algae blooms are also killing tourism and businesses in the state. (The Guardian)

To his credit, Governor DeSantis is making good on his promises. While in Congress, DeSantis was a Trump believer and a climate change denier.

• What changed for DeSantis was being closer to the problem. The situation proves once again that Tip O’Neil was right—all politics are local.
• Florida’s current junior senator, Rick Scott, was nicknamed Red Tide Rick for his having dismissed the blooms and their relationship to climate change. It nearly cost him the Senate election. Now Scott too has changed his tune and is working with the Florida Congressional delegation to find solutions to the problem.

Don’t shoot. Representative Matt Gaetz offered an amendment that would nix the June 30, 2022 expiration date for the drilling moratorium in Gulf Test Range. An amendment from the bipartisan Florida delegation would prohibit oil and gas pre-leasing and any other relevant activities off the state’s coast to maintain military readiness.

So, sue him. Two major health organizations on sued the Trump administration over its roll-back of an Obama-era rule on power plant emissions.

The American Lung Association and the American Public Health Association are challenging President Trump’s newly unveiled American Clean Energy (ACE) rule, the admin-istration’s replacement for the Obama administration's Clean Power Plan. (The Hill)

Climate, Politics/Capitol Light©, is a service of The JBS Group and Civil Notion.com
 
 
Volume 1                                                                     June 27, 2019                                                                Issue 12

A ha’pence for your thoughts. Vice President Pence repeatedly dodged when asked multiple times on CNN's "State of the Union" whether the human-induced crisis is a threat to the country, telling host Jake Tapper: "Well, what I will tell you is that we'll always follow the science on that in this administration." (CNN)

Not even a ha’pence. Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue cited weather patterns and said "it rained yesterday, it's a nice pretty day today" when asked about the cause of the global climate crisis in an interview with CNN.

I couldn’t agree more. Axios got its hands on the internal vetting documents for Trump administration nominees. According to the notes Rick Perry, Energy Secretary, had voluminous vetting concerns: "Perry described Trumpism as a 'toxic mix of demagoguery, mean-spiritedness, and nonsense that will lead the Republican Party to perdition." (Axios)

Scott Pruitt, who ultimately lost his job as EPA administrator because of serial ethical abuses and clubbiness with lobbyists, had a section in his vetting dossier flagging "coziness with big energy companies."

Mick Mulvaney, now Trump's acting chief of staff, had a striking assortment of red flags, including his assessment that Trump "is not a very good person."

The Trump transition team was so worried about Rudy Giuliani, in line for secretary of state, that they created a separate 25-page document titled "Rudy Giuliani Business Ties Research Dossier" with copious accounting of his "foreign entanglements."

• Besides the insights the notes provide, they make it clear that a lot of the vetting was superficial—which likely accounts for why so many of the Trump nominees have left in disgrace because of continued ethics violations and conflicts of interest.