Climate, Politics/Capitol Light©, is a service of The JBS Group and Civil Notion
 
Volume 1                                                   September 27, 2019                                                                    Issue 30
 
It’s been an exciting week—starting with the UN’s climate summit and ending more or less with the both the House and Senate passing a continuing resolution to keep the doors of government open—at least until midnight on November 21st.

The big political news of the week, of course, was the House taking the first step in the impeachment process. The impeachment investigation will have an impact on energy and environmental legislation, as it will in other areas.

The otherwise caustic relations between Democrats and Republicans and Democrats and Trump have just been made even more so—meaning any initiative requiring the legislative and executive branches to cooperate is at risk—including the 2020 federal budget.

Notwithstanding the Continuing Resolution, I see trouble ahead. Trump is not a happy man. I believe he will at least consider diverting attention from the impeachment investigation by again forcing a shutdown of the federal government.

I would imagine that Trump hates the government he rules over and is likely feeling paranoid. I’ve served as a special counsel to several high-level political appointees and seen how confidence in one’s ability to boss the system can turn to fear and loathing. Those I served started with a better sense of political reality than Donald Trump.

Trump appears to be wound so tight that should he begin to unwind, he’ll take no prisoners.

If I were Rudy Giuliani, I would stay off the streets. I imagine he’ll be the first one thrown under a bus by the president. It’s hard to conceive of anyone on the Trump team better suited to be made into a speed bump than Hiz Hona’ the former mayor of New York. It’s always someone else’s fault in Trumpville.

                       Climate, Politics/Capitol Light©, is a service of The JBS Group and Civil Notion
 
Volume 1                                                          September 23, 2019                                                             Issue 29

The new federal fiscal year is a week away. It appears that a continuing resolution (CR) will once again be the answer to Congress’ continued inability to pass spending bills. The CR already passed by the House and now being considered by the Senate will extend government funding through November 21st. Whether Congress giving itself more time will actually result in the passage of the 12 spending bills that makes up the annual appropriation’s package is questionable.

Each day that passes seems to bring up new partisan conflicts that make doing the business of government a near impossibility. The border wall and Trump’s having gone around Congress by issuing a national emergency at the Southern Border and moving $3.6 billion out of the Defense Department’s budget is still sticking in the craw of Democrats and many Republicans—at least those who recognize Trump’s actions trash the constitutional separation of powers.

Other climate-related issues contributing to the partisan divide include drilling off the shores of the lower continental US and in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR). Contrary to the budget agreement made by the White House and Congress to raise federal spending and the debt ceiling that was made before the August recess, Democrats are still looking to add policy riders to appropriations legislation. The Democrats look to the appropriations bills as their only real chance to push back against the actions of the administration that they otherwise have a problem influencing, e.g., opening the Arctic to oil and gas drilling.

CRs keep the government open, but they basically limit agencies to do only what they’ve done the fiscal year before. These days the that can mean only what an agency did five or ten years ago since Congressional gridlock has ruled Capitol Hill for most of the century.

                     
                   Climate, Politics/Capitol Light©, is a service of The JBS Group and Civil Notion
 
                                                                        September 19, 2019
 
Coal countries need not apply. United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres drew praise Wednesday for taking what supporters called a "powerful stand" to address the climate crisis. Guterres will reportedly exclude major economies, including the United States, from talking at the upcoming U.N. Climate Action Summit because of their failure to produce appropriately ambitious climate plans and their ongoing support for coal. (Common Dreams)

Leslie Hook reported at the Financial Times Tuesday on the exclusions, citing a draft schedule of the summit, set take place Monday. Australia, Japan, South Korea, and South Africa will be snubbed over their continued support for coal. Brazil and Saudi Arabia, both of whom have criticized the Paris climate accord, will also be blocked. The Trump White House, which announced its plans to ditch the deal, will also not be afforded a speaking slot, Hook reported. (CBS News)

• A gutsy and long overdue move.

Climate, Politics/Capitol Light©, is a service of The JBS Group and Civil Notion
 
Volume 1                                                     September 16, 2019                                                                    Issue 27

Show us the money. Congress will move spending legislation on multiple fronts this week, possibly including the Energy and Water Development bill in the Senate and a stopgap measure in the House.

Lawmakers are pressing to pass fiscal 2020 spending bills before the new fiscal year begins Oct. 1 amid partisan splits over funding levels and policy riders.

Leaders in both chambers say they want to avert a shutdown in the fiscal new year by moving a temporary funding measure. The House is set to act on one this week.

The Senate is tentatively set for a procedural vote that would allow it to consider its first fiscal 2020 bills — the Energy-Water and Defense measures — in one package. Sixty votes would be needed to advance the bill, meaning Democrats could filibuster it.

Senate appropriators approved both measures last week, but only the Energy-Water bill had bipartisan support. Democrats opposed the Defense measure because it would help fund President Trump's $5 billion border wall.

If the Senate passes Energy-Water, it would be one of the most significant measures related to climate change to pass the chamber this Congress. The bill includes substantial increases in the budgets of DOE’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy and ARPA-E. The Senate version includes more funds than the House version. (E&E News)

• It’s likely at this point that the Democrats will try to add riders to the appropriations bills in violation of the non-binding agreement made as a part of the budget deal Congressional leaders made with the White House before the August recess.
• It’s agreed that a continuing resolution will be needed as there are only two weeks left before the end of the current fiscal year. The agreement is likely to extend the deadline for a deal to around Thanksgiving.
• Although there’s no appetite for a government shutdown, there is growing enmity between the Democrats, Senate Republicans, and the White House so another game of “chicken” may yet be played.
  

                      Climate, Politics/Capitol Light©, is a service of The JBS Group and Civil Notion
 
 
Volume 1                                                    September 9, 2019                                                                     Issue 26
 
The month ahead:

Congress is back from its August recess. It appears the break did nothing to cool tensions—either between Congressional Republicans and Democrats or between Hill Democrats and Trump. If anything, inter-party relations are more acrimonious than before. It doesn’t bode well for the rest of the legislative year.

Hanging fire on the Senate’s September agenda are appropriations bills. The House has already passed ten of 12 spending bills, while the Senate has yet to introduce even one. The Senate chose to wait until after Trump and Congressional leaders settled on a budget number and agreed to raising the nation’s debt ceiling. Agreements were reached just before the summer’s recess.

Senate appropriators, however, are expecting to pick up the pace release three spending bills in the next few days—Energy-Water, Labor-Health-Human Services, and Defense.

The appetite for a government shutdown is small. A failure to make the September 30th deadline will likely result in a continuing resolution (CR). House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD) has already written the Democratic caucus telling members to expect a CR through November 22nd. There’s been no sign-off by Senate Republicans on a Plan “B” CR, however, so a shutdown is not yet off the table.

Several extensions of expiring programs could become part of a CR, including a short-term reauthorization for the National Flood Insurance Program. The program is set to expire at the end of the month. It’s hard to imagine that either Trump or Congress would dare cut the program during hurricane season—especially in what is already a record year of flooding.

The House will be directing the bulk of its September attentions to conducting committee hearings on issues Trump and company would like to ignore, e.g., gun control, immigration, and climate. Mass shootings, an extraordinary emergency declaration by Trump, and CNN’s seven hours of climate-related townhall meetings have kept these issues in the spotlight.

House Democrats are keen to continue their oversight investigations of Trump and his administration. The list of investigations is likely to grow given events like #Sharpiegate, in which Trump refused to admit he made a mistake about the path of Hurricane Dorian. Vice President Pence’s stay at Trump’s Irish golf resort requiring him to commute the 180 miles by car and his Air Force 2 jetliner to his two days of meetings with Irish leaders in Dublin served-up another opportunity for the Democrats to cry “emoluments.”

                      Climate, Politics/Capitol Light©, is a service of The JBS Group and Civil Notion
 
Volume 1                                                          September 4, 2019                                                                Issue 25

Get a move on. Government lawyers today urged the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit to expedite consideration of legal challenges to the EPA regulation, which replaces the Obama-era Clean Power Plan.

The move could mean the Trump administration defends the ACE rule in the Supreme Court before the end of the president's term.

• How long it takes for ACE cases to be finally resolved by the High Court is a critical part of what the future will hold, should the Democrats retake the White House.
• Trump came into office before the CPP could be decided by the Supreme Court, allowing him to rescind and replace Obama’s plan, and to ask for dismissal of West Virginia v. EPA—the name under which most of the cases were consolidated.
• Had the case been decided in favor of the CPP—by a court without Justices Gorsuch and Kennedy—it would have been much harder for Trump and company to attack because it would have been an in force regulation.
• Beyond the CPP, a positive outcome in the case would have created a strong and on-point precedent that would make it harder for a conservative judiciary to ignore.

For an additional discussion of what a Democratic administration will be facing after four years of Trump check here for my series on Erasing Trump’s Climate Legacy.